财务与金融系学术讲座系列2023年第3讲

来源：财务与金融系

主题：Art in Times of Crisis

主讲人：李越欣（中国人民大学应用经济学院助理教授）

协调人：姜付秀、竺圣波

时间：2023年3月10日（周五）上午 10:00-11:30

地点：明商1007会议室

语言：中英文

讲座摘要：

Is art a safe haven in times of political or financial crisis? We trace the long-term performance of the UK art market during world wars, economic recessions, financial crises, inflationary periods, and changes in monetary policy. We digitalized historical auction archives to construct art price indices from the early 20th century onwards. Annual art auction value grew, in real terms, more than seven-fold over the past century. The arithmetic annual real return and risk amount to 3.6% and 20.1%, respectively.

Art returns plummeted at the onset of wars, but in the later years of war periods, returns became positive and outperformed equities, which suggests that art could serve as a hedge against political uncertainty. During wars, smaller and thus transportable paintings obtained higher returns.

Art is sensitive to economic and financial crises, with the largest slumps occurring in the Post-WWI recession, the Great Depression, the oil crisis, the recessions of the early 1980s and early 1990s, and the Great Recession. By far the largest declines in art returns occurred in 1931 (-63%) and for the post-WWII period in 1991 (-37%) when the largest art market bubble in art history burst. We highlight changes in art preferences for specific paintings by size, art school, art objects’ liquidity, and artists’ nationalities during different crises. We report that art enters a broad optimal asset portfolio both in non-crisis periods and during war times which implies that it is a safe haven during political crises, but not during financial crisis and economic recessions.

主讲人简介：

李越欣博士现任中国人民大学应用经济学院学院讲师，她于2021年毕业于荷兰蒂尔堡大学，获得金融学博士学位。在此之前，她获得了中国人民大学的经济学学士和硕士学位。她曾经在美国哥伦比亚大学商学院和英国佳士得拍卖行担任访问学者。李越欣的研究领域是文化经济、产业金融、公司金融、另类投资。她的论文曾发表在国际与国内顶级金融期刊上，如《金融研究》、Management Science。

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