贸易经济系学术讲座系列2020年第6讲

主 题：中国加工贸易的福利分析

主讲人: 邓建鹏 (上海财经大学)

时 间：2020-10-27 14:00

地 点：腾讯会议室

语 言：中英文

腾讯会议室：https://meeting.tencent.com/s/U37U2BeOVYYL

会议号：299 565 543

讲座摘要：

This paper studies the implications of the import duty exemption associated with China’s processing trade on global welfare and international trade. We develop a multi-country general equilibrium model with firm heterogeneity to quantify these impacts. The counterfactual analysis based on the model reveals that the global trade-to-GDP ratio decreases by about 2.6% if China ends the duty exemption for processing imports. China’s real wage increases by 1% as a joint outcome of market size effect through the increased demand for domestic inputs and the deteriorated terms of trade. Almost all other economies experience welfare losses due to the deterioration in their terms of trade. The largest declines are in Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan, with reduction in real wages of 0.68%, 0.35% and 0.12% respectively. The United States and Germany also have a modest welfare loss of a 0.06% decrease in real wages.

主讲人简介：

邓建鹏，上海财经大学商学院助理教授，美国宾夕法尼亚州立大学经济学博士。邓建鹏博士本科毕业于华中科技大学，硕士毕业香港城市大学，研究兴趣为国际贸易与经济地理。