会计系学术讲座系列2022年第7讲

主 题：明星分析师排名与分析师行为的因果关系：基于《机构投资者》行业变化的证据

主讲人: 郝如宾（北京师范大学讲师）

协调人: 廖冠民 徐图

时 间：2022-04-20 14:00

地 点：线上会议室

语 言：中英文

讲座摘要：

《机构投资者》杂志作为美国最具影响力的明星分析师排名组织者每年按行业对卖方分析师进行排名。我们以《机构投资者》行业变化作为分析师激励的一个外生冲击，研究明星排名对分析师行为的因果效应。我们利用锦标赛理论框架，将分析师视为《机构投资者》全明星锦标赛参与者。我们发现，当有更多的明星位置出现时，分析师在《机构投资者》行业扩张后会作出更频繁、更准确、更及时的EPS预测。与其他非明星分析师相比，与明星分析师最接近的竞争对手非明星分析师（即具有过去亚军地位的分析师和大型券商的非明星分析师）的这种效应更加明显。这些结果表明，《机构投资者》排名不仅是人气竞赛，更使分析师为追求明星地位而付出更多地研究努力。

The Institutional Investor (II) magazine, the organizer of the most influential star analyst rankings in the U.S., ranks sell-side analysts by industry sectors every year. We use II’s industry sector changes as an arguably exogenous “shock” to analysts’ incentives and examine the causal effect of star rankings on analysts’ behavior. We exploit the framework of tournament theory and view analysts as participants in the II “All-Star” tournament. We find that analysts issue more frequent, more accurate, and more timely EPS forecasts after II sector expansions when more star positions are created. This effect is more pronounced for non-star analysts who are closest competitors with star analysts (i.e., analysts with past runner-up status and non-star analysts at large brokerage houses) than other non-star analysts. These results suggest that the II rankings are not merely popularity contests, but indeed cause analysts to exert more research effort in pursuit of the star status.

主讲人简介：

报告人现为北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院讲师，于2019年在香港中文大学取得会计学博士学位，本科及硕士毕业于中国人民大学商学院。其研究领域为资本市场、公司治理与信息披露。教学领域主要是财务会计与公司理财。主要的工作论文：Analysts’ Legal Records, Opportunism and Career Outcomes; Analyst Report Popularity; National Culture and Analyst Forecasting Behavior; Robo-advising and Household Wealth Management.