贸易经济系学术讲座系列2020年第4讲

主 题：Trade Wars and Industrial Policies along the Global Value Chains

主讲人: 王子 (上海财经大学)

时 间：2020-10-20 15:00

地 点：腾讯会议

语 言：中英文

腾讯会议号：831289286

讲座摘要：

We provide a quantitative estimation of the welfare impacts of the US-China trade conflict starting at 2018. We first document that the Trumpian tariffs were initially concentrated in a few high-tech manufacturing industries emphasized by the ``Made in China 2025" ("MIC 2025") project. These industries (i) exhibit strong economies of scale, and (ii) have low elasticities of substitution as inputs for other sectors. Motivated by these features, we extend the quantitative trade model developed by Caliendo and Parro (2015) by incorporating sectoral external economies of scale and nested-CES input-output linkages.  We calibrate the model to 7 major economies and 95 disaggregated industries in 2016 and examine the impacts of the Trumpian tariffs and the ``MIC 2025" project. We find that the Trumpian tariffs lead to welfare losses in China, where high-tech industries are disproportionately affected. Surprisingly, ``MIC 2025" increase the US welfare by lowering prices of inputs imported by the US firms. Moreover, we find that the Trumpian tariffs actually increase China's welfare gains from ``MIC 2025".

主讲人简介：

王子，上海财经大学商学院助理教授。2016年获美国宾夕法尼亚州立大学经济学博士学位。研究领域为国际贸易、跨国投资以及经济增长。论文在Journal of International Economics, Journal of International Money and Finance等期刊发表。