管理科学与工程系学术讲座系列2022年第16讲

主 题: Managing Operations of a Hog Farm Facing Volatile Markets: Inventory and Selling Strategies

主讲人: 邱韫哲 (北京大学信息管理系助理教授)

时 间：2022年10月12日 (周三) 上午10:00

地 点：线上会议室

语 言：中/英文

讲座摘要：

We study a dynamic finishing stage planning problem of a pork producer who, at the beginning of each week, gets to see how many market-ready hogs she has available for sale and the current market prices. Then, she must decide what hogs to sell to a meatpacker, on the open market, and what to hold until the following week. Also, at the beginning of each week, a random number of newly arriving hogs is added to the existing inventory of market-ready hogs. The farmer has a contract to deliver a fixed quantity to the meatpacker each week priced according to a predetermined formula, where the formula’s price fluctuates over time. If the farmer under-delivers to the meatpacker, she pays a contractually pre-determined unit penalty which also fluctuates over time. Bio-security protocols prevent the farmer from buying hogs on the open market and selling them to the meatpacker. The farmer can, however, use the open market to sell hogs for prevailing market prices.

We treat the problem as a dynamic, multi-item, non-stationary inventory problem with multiple sources of uncertainty. The optimal policy is a threshold policy with multiple, price-dependent thresholds. The computational complexity required to evaluate the thresholds is the biggest impediment to using the optimal policy as a decision support tool. So, we utilize an approximate dynamic programming approach that exploits the optimal policy structure and produces a sharp heuristic that is easy to implement. Numerical experiments calibrated to a pork producer’s data reveal the optimal policy with the heuristically estimated thresholds is a substantial improvement over the existing practice (around 20% on average). The success of the proposed model is attributed to recognizing the value of holding UWHs and effectively hedging supply uncertainty and future prices an insight missed in the planning actions of the current practice.

主讲人简介：

邱韫哲，现任北京大学信息管理系助理教授。2022年博士毕业于美国圣路易斯华盛顿大学奥林商学院供应链管理专业。2013年毕业于清华大学工业工程系，2016 年获得北京大学工业工程与管理系硕士学位。在 MSOM、IISE Transaction、IEEE TASE、IJPR等国际期刊发表学术论文与会议论文十余篇。曾荣获 2014 年 IEEE 机器人与自动化协会最佳论文奖，2020 年 IIE Transaction 期刊年度最佳论文优胜奖。研究方向包括供应链管理与金融、大数据管理与应用、可持续供应链、动态规划等。

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