贸易经济系学术讲座系列2021年第4讲

主 题：The ‘China Shock’ Reconsidered

主讲人: 徐嫄 (清华大学)

协调人: 陈志远

时 间：2021-04-14 16:00

地 点：明商1008会议室

语 言：中英文

讲座摘要：

Existing studies claim that the surging imports from China (‘China Shock’) has affected the U.S. economy negatively by reducing employment, income, and so on (‘China Syndrome’). This project proposes to reconsider the effect of ‘China shock’ in at least two ways. One is the “masking effect” of domestic macroeconomic factors, such as housing boom. The United States has experienced both housing boom and import boom in the 2000s. The import shock operated in part through the housing market, and that is an important reason why the China shock was as big as it was. If housing prices had not responded at all to the China shock, then the total employment effect of the China shock would have been reduced by more than one-half. The other is that current studies focus on the job-reducing effect of imports, whereas much less is explored in the job-creating effect of exports. We propose to consider both imports and exports simultaneously in the analysis. In so doing we employ an instrumental variable regression analysis. We show that the negative effects of import competition are largely balanced out once the job-creating export expansion is taken into account.

主讲人简介：

徐嫄，清华大学经管学院经济系副教授。2002年获复旦大学经济学学士，2009年获美国加州大学戴维斯分校经济学博士。主要研究领域是国际经济学和宏观经济学。在Journal of International Economics, Journal of Comparative Economics, 《经济研究》，《金融研究》等期刊发表论文多篇。主持国家自然科学基金面上项目，青年项目。曾获得清华大学经管学院先进工作者，优秀教学奖，优秀班主任等多项奖励。